SCORE Poll Projects 69-82 Seats for AAP in Punjab; Drugs Top Concernਸਕੋਰ ਪੋਲ: ਪੰਜਾਬ ਵਿੱਚ ਆਪ ਨੂੰ 69-82 ਸੀਟਾਂ ਦਾ ਅੰਦਾਜ਼ਾ, ਨਸ਼ੇ ਸਭ ਤੋਂ ਵੱਡੀ ਚਿੰਤਾ

A new opinion poll by SCORE Intelligence projects that the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) would win 69 to 82 of Punjab's 117 Assembly seats if elections were held now, comfortably above the 59 needed for a majority but well short of the 92 it won in 2022.

What the poll projects

SCORE, a Bengaluru-based polling platform that launched on 16 October, says its first Punjab round covered all 117 constituencies and interviewed more than 28,000 voters between 13 September and 13 October, according to India Today and NDTV. The headline figures were published on the SCORE website as an estimate for 15 October.

AAP's vote share is put at about 38 per cent, down from 42 per cent in 2022. Congress is projected at 24 per cent (17 to 34 seats), the BJP at 14 per cent (4 to 12 seats), the Shiromani Akali Dal at 12.5 per cent (2 to 6 seats) and Amritpal Singh's Akali Dal (Waris Punjab De) at 8.5 per cent (2 to 6 seats). About 22.5 per cent of voters were undecided. The seat ranges overlap, so they cannot simply be added up.

Mann ahead, but drugs top the worry list

On the question of who should be the next Chief Minister, Bhagwant Mann leads with 39.36 per cent, followed by Congress leader Charanjit Singh Channi at 15.61 per cent, according to SCORE's website and NDTV. SCORE puts Mann's personal approval at 63.9 per cent and the AAP government's at 57.7 per cent.

Drugs are Punjab's biggest local concern at 39.3 per cent, rising to 49 per cent in Majha, the poll says. Roads came second at 13.2 per cent. Only 48.1 per cent of respondents said they were satisfied with their sitting MLA, and 42.4 per cent favoured re-electing their MLA.

Women and welfare the AAP edge

The sharpest divide is by gender. SCORE estimates AAP support at 51.2 per cent among women against 27.4 per cent among men, where Congress is almost level at 26.6 per cent. Support among women over 60 is put at 57.8 per cent.

The survey says 79.7 per cent of households receive at least one government scheme, with about 70 per cent of women reporting the Mawan Dheeyan Satkar cash transfer and about half citing free electricity. India Today's columnist Rasheed Kidwai noted these are survey responses, not verified administrative data.

Regions and close contests

AAP's estimated vote share is highest in Doaba at 43.9 per cent, then Majha at 40.8 per cent, and lowest in Malwa at 35.2 per cent. Malwa, which has 69 of the 117 seats, holds 12 of the 16 close contests SCORE identifies. In all, it flags 22 key constituencies: six effectively tied and 16 close.

How to read an early poll

Elections are due in February 2027, and nearly a quarter of voters are undecided. Kidwai wrote that a single survey cannot say what Punjab will decide, but can set a benchmark; SCORE plans a new Punjab round on the 15th of every month, with the next due on 15 November. The poll is a new entrant with little track record, so treat the seat ranges as an early indicator, not a forecast.

What does the SCORE poll say about AAP in Punjab?

It projects 69 to 82 seats for AAP at about 38 per cent vote share, against 92 seats and 42 per cent in 2022.

Who is the preferred Chief Minister in the poll?

Bhagwant Mann leads with 39.36 per cent, ahead of Charanjit Singh Channi at 15.61 per cent.

When is the next SCORE Punjab poll?

SCORE says its next round will be released on 15 November.