NASA Scientist Puts Punjab-Haryana Farm Fires at 34,000ਨਾਸਾ ਵਿਗਿਆਨੀ: ਪਰਾਲੀ ਦੀਆਂ ਅੱਗਾਂ 4,500 ਨਹੀਂ, 34,000

A NASA scientist has said the official count of farm fires in Punjab and Haryana captures only a fraction of the stubble burning actually taking place, putting the real number at about 34,000 since October 1. Dr Hiren Jethva, an aerosol remote sensing scientist associated with Morgan State University and NASA's Goddard Space Flight Centre, said his calculations show the official figure of about 4,500 understates the scale of burning by roughly seven times.

What does the NASA analysis show?

In a post on November 9, Jethva said satellite instruments recorded 4,089 fires in the region around 1:30 pm and 4,196 around 4 pm, and that after adjusting the figures to the higher-resolution VIIRS baseline, the total reached about 34,000 fires, which he called a conservative estimate. The count covers Punjab and Haryana between October 1 and November 9. On November 5 he had already put the figure for Punjab alone at 27,000 fires between October 1 and November 5.

Why do official counts miss so many fires?

Official counts rely mainly on three polar-orbiting satellites, Terra, Aqua and Suomi-NPP, which pass over the region in the late morning and early afternoon. Jethva said farmers have increasingly shifted burning to the late afternoon, often between 4 pm and 5 pm, and fires typically burn out within a few hours, so they are gone before the next satellite pass. Until 2021 most burning took place between 1 pm and 2 pm, when the satellites could see it, but the peak has moved later each year since 2022, a shift also seen in 2024 and 2025.

Independent research supports the warning. The Council on Energy, Environment and Water says monitoring depends on satellites that cannot capture fires smaller than 375 metres by 375 metres and visit only twice during the daytime, and cites an ISRO study that found the peak burning time had moved from 1:30 pm to 5 pm. The International Forum for Environment, Sustainability and Technology notes that coarse resolution and limited revisits lead to significant undercounting.

What do the official figures say?

The Commission for Air Quality Management has recorded 4,459 cases of stubble burning in Punjab this season, up to November 8, including 1,152 on Diwali day alone. Officials inspected 2,998 locations and confirmed burning at 1,310. Fines of Rs 62.55 lakh were imposed in 1,228 cases, of which Rs 32.60 lakh has been recovered, 884 FIRs were registered, red entries were made in the land records of 1,017 farms, and proceedings were started against 18 nodal officers.

Tarn Taran has recorded the most cases at 654, followed by Ferozepur at 592, Sangrur at 488, Bathinda at 406 and Patiala at 288. Evidence of burning was confirmed at 306 locations in Tarn Taran and 247 in Ferozepur.

What does it mean for Delhi's air?

On peak days in late October and early November, stubble burning can contribute as much as 40 per cent of Delhi's daily PM2.5 pollution, according to the CEEW assessment. Air quality in Patiala reached an AQI of 499 after Diwali, in the severe category, while Delhi recorded its worst Diwali air in five years. The gap between the official count and the satellite-based estimate raises fresh questions about how the scale of burning is measured, and how much of Delhi's smog it really explains.

How many farm fires does the NASA scientist count?

About 34,000 in Punjab and Haryana since October 1, against the official figure of about 4,500.

Why are official counts lower?

Satellites pass in the early afternoon, while farmers now mostly burn between 4 pm and 5 pm, after the satellites have passed.

Which Punjab district has the most fires?

Tarn Taran, with 654 cases, followed by Ferozepur with 592.

How much can stubble burning add to Delhi's pollution?

Up to 40 per cent of daily PM2.5 on peak days, according to the Council on Energy, Environment and Water.